Predicted level of development publishing movement for Engineering Research University of Technology

Abstract

This paper aimed to construct optimal predicted models with reference  to the "Number of Publishing Research" in the various engineering field based on time series analysis influenced for the period (2007-2022) years. in Iraq among a sample at the "University of Technology- iraq", through applying a several non linear aut¬¬o-regressive of a proposed models regarding oldest certified journals, as well as forecasting of the coming time publishing research for the period (2023 – 2025) years.

Objective: This paper aimed to construct optimal predicted models with reference to the "Number of Publishing Research" in the various engineering field based on time series analysis influenced for the period (2007-2022) years. in Iraq among a sample at the "University of Technology- Iraq .  

Methodology: Data are selected from the website of the journals issued by the   University of Technology in Iraq, which registered and published by the Ministry of High Education and Scientific research, for the mentioned period of time. Auto-regression analysis of variance-ANOVA criterion had been applied, the best model will present a smaller significant level compared among several proposed simple linear and non linear models, such that: (Logarithmic, Inverse, (Polynomial Auto-regressive of Quadratic, and Cubic) ordered, Compound, Power, S-Shape, Growth, Exponential Trend, Brown's Linear Exp. Smoothing, and Logistic).

Results and Findings: The best predicated number of publishing research's models had differentiated significant influences levels regarding of auto-regressive parameter's estimates at significant levels in at least Value<0.05, where non linear of polynomial "Cubic-Shape" of polynomial auto-regression has been selected among studied models for the "Iraqi Journal of Computer, Communication, and Systems, International journal of Engineering and Technology, and Grand total of the studied journals", then followed by "Power-Shape" auto-regression has been selected among studied models for the " Iraqi Journal of Architecture and Planning". Forecasting for the coming time period up to 2025 years. are predicted according to an optimum significance models.

Conclusions: Analysis of influences studied time series for "Number of Publishing Research" for the period (2007-2022) years. in Iraq among a sample at the "University of Technology" according to proposed of a several non linear auto-regressive models of rank one shows clear differences in the number of an expected of publishing numbers, where the decreasing number of international journal of engineering and technology, as well as grand total, while, increment of publishing numbers in the coming time period (2021 – 2025) years. for the "Iraqi Journal of Computer, Communication, and Systems, and " Iraqi Journal of Architecture and Planning